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Conclusion and Outlook

Over the past five years, China's tomato paste exports to Western Europe have experienced a significant shift from high to low levels.

In the first half of 2021–2023, strong demand in the Western European market supported high export volumes from China; however, since the second half of 2023, affected by multiple factors such as inventory cycles, policy obstacles, and increased local competition, export volumes have declined significantly, and are expected to remain at low levels in 2024–2025.

It is expected that in the future, Chinese companies exporting to Western Europe will need to focus on: changes in EU food safety and sustainability policies; year-on-year fluctuations in production in local producing regions such as Italy; changes in demand from the European food processing industry;  public opinion and political risks regarding agricultural products from third countries in the EU; and the production growth of potential competing countries such as Turkey, Egypt, and Ukraine.